Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan are <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/">arguing</a> over the future of the Fed's 
operations. Ben's calling for greater transparency (which reduces
expectations-related variation in aggregate supply and demand) as an
intermediate gambit to using policy rules (which he called for in previous
speeches). Alan's defending independent action, arguing that "simple" policy
rules need to be complex to address the range of outcomes. Time to review the
research for and against policy rules. 


<p>

<a href="http://particleadventure.org">Particle Adventure</a>!!! I mean, when's the last time 
you reviewed your Standard Model of the atom?

<p>
I got my Cholesterol bloodwork back: 
<br>
<center>
<table cellpadding=4 border=1>
<tr><td>Total Cholesterol</td><td align=right>126</td></tr>
<tr><td>HDL</td><td align=right>42</td></tr>
<tr><td>LDL</td><td align=right>39</td></tr>
<tr><td>Triglycerides</td><td align=right>223</td></tr>
</table>
</center>

<p>
Played two games of Risk last night. I made several errors throughout both
games. Overconfidence, inattention, and loss of hope plagued my playing. 
Simply put, I managed to forget everything I worked to learn in the last
several years. 

<p>
Here are the odds of the various dice rolls (from <a href="http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/">Kennedy Lemke</a>):
<br>
<pre>
Attacker: one die; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 15 out of 36 (41.67 %)
Defender wins 21 out of 36 (58.33 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 125 out of 216 (57.87 %)
Defender wins 91 out of 216 (42.13 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 855 out of 1296 (65.97 %)
Defender wins 441 out of 1296 (34.03 %)


Attacker: one die; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins 55 out of 216 (25.46 %)
Defender wins 161 out of 216 (74.54 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 295 out of 1296 (22.76 %)
Defender wins both: 581 out of 1296 (44.83 %)
Both win one: 420 out of 1296 (32.41 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)
</pre>
<p>