Beating the Business Cycle by Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji

This book is an extended advertisement for Luckily, they freely provide the data I'm interested in (the Weekly Leading Indicators and Future Inflation Growth). Together these data appear to indicate the odds of US economic growth.

Their big problem is that they've observed a relationship in data, and have then built a model, This is a big no-no, as in any dataset, there are random correlations. They now have to tell a story that shows why their model works. But, if they do that, then they end up poorer: if the model doesn't make sense, they can't charge us for it; if the model does make sense, the idea is now in the public domain, and they can't charge a monopolist's premium.

So, their solution is to attack Karl Popper (who said we progress only through having falsifiable theories) on page 25, and this makes them look like twits.

But, stupid philosophy does not automatically exclude their economics. If you go to their free trial signup and use the promo code "RECREC" (w/o quotes), you can get a free 3-month subscription. But, I'd read more of GeoffreyMoore, and the following quote on the problem of the current business cycle in the US:

... many services, like advertising and consulting, remain highly cyclical, not because of inventories, but because they still rely on discretionary expenditures that can be postponed without immediate consequences.
-- page 44