Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic

Papic takes a constructive approach to geopolitical analysis by looking at real constraints, ie. need to have a model of the game and players.¹

Referring to Tetlock many times, the text should have been sharper about view formation and probability assessment ( track the confidence in the estimate! ). In a nutshell:

1. read background to establish the range of outcomes.
2. assign base rates to the outcomes
3. read the particulars for each outcome, and update odds / confidence
4. identify the future informational events
5. make a timeline and forecast
6. run periodic reviews until the post-event review

Papic only details passive observation -- a good sequel would cover information resources and costs, ie. Jane's or The Military Balance for corporate-grade intelligence.²

These constraints operate according to the well-known Keynes adage: "If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has." The Economist later added a corollary: "If you owe your bank a billion pounds everybody has a problem."