Arnold Kling posted recently his odds on the economic futures of the United States. I'd rewrite them as follows:
Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding errors. ;)
I put the biggest odds on something similary to the status quo; each party nickel-and-dimes the other to get to a better budgetary setup each year. The AARP may veto that and we end up with some kind of wealth tax negotiated. Everything else is a long shot. Or a really long shot in the case of default.