The pandemic has likely brought forward a global 40% income tax everywhere (that matters, cf TaxZeroing).

While most people who answer polls prefer raising the capital gains tax to other taxes, that just isn't sufficient to cover the hole that the US now has. It seems a foregone conclusion that income and payroll taxes will both increase in the coming years.

Countering that is a) the push to eliminate cash, which at the margin, subjects more of the illicit economy to taxation, b) the Legalize-Regulate-and-Tax political marriage of pretty much everyone against gangsters and social conservatives, and c) the gig-economy mega-companies, which should become major tax funnels as they capture the previously untaxed small-labor side-gigs.

Two KPIs to watch as this drama unfolds: a) Tax compliance, which has been high in the US for a long time, and b) Labor force participation, which has been falling for decades, especially for prime-working-age males.