The Art Of The Long View by Peter Schwartz

In a nutshell: read a lot, think about all the ways the future could go wrong or right, wait for one of the futures to arrive, declare victory, write book.

I would conjecture that you should think about what could go wrong or right, read about the history of each, try to model how fast changes will occur, then try to find a way to monitor each process.

Historian Barbara Tuchman puts it this way: Men will not believe what does not fit in with their plans or suit their prearrangements.
The Scenario Building Animal, Memories of the Future
Read widely (the following) to stay in the loop:
  1. Discover Magazine
  2. The Economist
  3. Electric Word
  4. Foreign Affairs
  5. Future Survey
  6. Granta
  7. Harper's
  8. The Manchester Guardian Weekly
  9. Mondo 2000
  10. The New Yorker
  11. New Options
  12. New Scientist
  13. New York Times Tuesday Science
  14. Omni
  15. Release 1.0
  16. Scientific American
  17. Science
  18. Technology Review
  19. Utne Reader
  20. Washington Spectator
  21. Whole Earth Reader
  22. Information-hunting and -gathering, Tactics: Where to Look
When a book, or magazine article, or idea makes you uncomfortable, notice your exact reaction. If you're bored, move on. If you feel threatened, stay with it and see what troubles you.
Information-hunting and -gathering, Tactics: Where to Look
Whenever I look for driving forces I first run through a familiar litany of categories: Society, Technology, Economics, Politics, Environment
Creating Scenario Building Blocks, Driving Forces: What we know we care about