The Art Of The Long View by Peter Schwartz

In a nutshell: read a lot, think about all the ways the future could go wrong or right, wait for one of the futures to arrive, declare victory, write book.

I would conjecture that you should think about what could go wrong or right, read about the history of each, try to model how fast changes will occur, then try to find a way to monitor each process.

Historian Barbara Tuchman puts it this way: Men will not believe what does not fit in with their plans or suit their prearrangements.

The Scenario Building Animal, Memories of the Future

Read widely (the following) to stay in the loop:

1. Discover Magazine
2. The Economist
3. Electric Word
4. Foreign Affairs
5. Future Survey
6. Granta
7. Harper's
8. The Manchester Guardian Weekly
9. Mondo 2000
10. The New Yorker
11. New Options
12. New Scientist
13. New York Times Tuesday Science
14. Omni
15. Release 1.0
16. Scientific American
17. Science
18. Technology Review
19. Utne Reader
20. Washington Spectator
21. Whole Earth Reader
Information-hunting and -gathering, Tactics: Where to Look

When a book, or magazine article, or idea makes you uncomfortable, notice your exact reaction. If you're bored, move on. If you feel threatened, stay with it and see what troubles you.

Information-hunting and -gathering, Tactics: Where to Look

Whenever I look for driving forces I first run through a familiar litany of categories: Society, Technology, Economics, Politics, Environment

Creating Scenario Building Blocks, Driving Forces: What we know we care about